In Spain, the economy is growing well below previous years, but it will still close 2019 with an annual GDP increase of 2.0% and above the Eurozone average. We expect growth to stabilize in 2021 towards its long-term potential rate, at 1.5%. Nevertheless, domestic and international risks threaten this baseline scenario. Therefore, there is a clear need to guarantee a framework of certainty and economic reforms that generate activity. This is confronted, however, by the current political reality.
Despite the slowdown in the global economy, the most important indicators of the Spanish economy confirm prolongation of the expansive phase. At Equipo Económico we foresee an increase in GDP of 2.4% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020. Inertia in activity continues to be sustained in the reforms implemented in previous years, and again in the historical minimum interest rates.
There will still be a bit more waiting, who knows if until next October 31st, to be certain of how the United Kingdom will leave the European Union (EU). Only then there will be enough information enabling us to analyze what real effects Brexit will have. At the moment, announcements related to future tariff policies in case of a no deal situation, together with the analysis of the current commercial patterns between Spain and the United Kingdom, allow us to identify the automotive sector as one of the potentially most affected. However, the effects are not homogeneous throughout the Spanish Regions. Thus, the production and, therefore, the employment level of the automotive sector in Aragon, Navarra and Castilla y Leon show a greater degree of exposure to the British market than other regions.
Consumption of traditional television is decreasing in Spain, consequence of the new trends that users have when watching audiovisual contents. This drop in consumption means a significant reduction in the generalist television audience, especially in regional televisions, while the audience of pay TV follows a significantly growing tendency. This change in consumption patterns is shown in the fact that in 2017, for the first time, revenues from pay TV exceeded open televisión ones.
Last week I participated in Jerusalem in the "OurCrowd Global Investor Summit", a benchmark international forum for financing the most innovative business and entrepreneurial projects. From our experience, and as it became even more evident during the Summit, the most successful projects in attracting investment have a clear answer to five very simple questions that I listed in this post.