In Spain, the economy is growing well below previous years, but it will still close 2019 with an annual GDP increase of 2.0% and above the Eurozone average. We expect growth to stabilize in 2021 towards its long-term potential rate, at 1.5%. Nevertheless, domestic and international risks threaten this baseline scenario. Therefore, there is a clear need to guarantee a framework of certainty and economic reforms that generate activity. This is confronted, however, by the current political reality.
The judgment of the National Court of last July is in comments, in which, through the indiciary test, the application of the exemption in the Personal Income Tax of a compensation for severance payments agreed in an act of conciliation before the labor authorities is denied . The Tax Authorities and the aforementioned Court presume the existence of an agreement between the parties.
The Supreme Court must resolve two new issues related to the Tax on increase in urban land value: first, whether it is possible to determine the taxable base according to the accounting result declared in the Corporation Tax; and, secondly, whether it is possible to update the acquisition value of the property according to the CPI or to some inflation correction mechanism.
Despite the slowdown in the global economy, the most important indicators of the Spanish economy confirm prolongation of the expansive phase. At Equipo Económico we foresee an increase in GDP of 2.4% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020. Inertia in activity continues to be sustained in the reforms implemented in previous years, and again in the historical minimum interest rates.
There will still be a bit more waiting, who knows if until next October 31st, to be certain of how the United Kingdom will leave the European Union (EU). Only then there will be enough information enabling us to analyze what real effects Brexit will have. At the moment, announcements related to future tariff policies in case of a no deal situation, together with the analysis of the current commercial patterns between Spain and the United Kingdom, allow us to identify the automotive sector as one of the potentially most affected. However, the effects are not homogeneous throughout the Spanish Regions. Thus, the production and, therefore, the employment level of the automotive sector in Aragon, Navarra and Castilla y Leon show a greater degree of exposure to the British market than other regions.