The Spanish economy have started the year 2018 with strong inertia. The most recent indicators point to the fact that consumption growth has accelerated in the first quarter of 2018. In this way, GDP growth will again be supported by the strength of household consumption, deemed to increase by 2.3% this year and 2.1% next year. Several factors will continue to support positive consumption data in the coming months. In this scenario, we estimate consumption will only reach its pre-crisis levels in the second quarter of 2019, leaving room for recovery.
Spain’s economic growth has continued to show notable dynamism in the first semester 2018, clearly above the European average. It moves forward along the same lines as the global product. However, we also observe the growing divergence occurring as the year goes on between the robust economic data and the greater uncertainty arising from an increased risk, both for the global economy and Spain.
The world economy continues to tackle the severe crisis caused by Covid-19. The pandemic has plummeted the Spanish economy harder than the rest of its European partners. The recovery of activity in the weeks following the end of the confinement has not shown the expected drive during the summer. Against this backdrop, Equipo Económico (Ee) has revised its GDP forecast for this year two points downwards, when the drop in GDP will reach -12.0%. The degree of success and effectiveness of economic policy will very much determine the strength of the recovery.