The Spanish economy is still undergoing intense and differential economic growth regarding the euro area. In addition, it is progressing with a more solid basis than previous periods of growth. However, the scenario we consider for the Spanish economy is now subject to upside risks, both inside and outside Spain.
Despite the slowdown in the global economy, the most important indicators of the Spanish economy confirm prolongation of the expansive phase. At Equipo Económico we foresee an increase in GDP of 2.4% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020. Inertia in activity continues to be sustained in the reforms implemented in previous years, and again in the historical minimum interest rates.
In Spain, the economy is growing well below previous years, but it will still close 2019 with an annual GDP increase of 2.0% and above the Eurozone average. We expect growth to stabilize in 2021 towards its long-term potential rate, at 1.5%. Nevertheless, domestic and international risks threaten this baseline scenario. Therefore, there is a clear need to guarantee a framework of certainty and economic reforms that generate activity. This is confronted, however, by the current political reality.